
India's Union Budget raised the fertiliser subsidy estimate for 2020-21 to Rs 133,947 crore, well above the original Rs 71,309 crore. The budget for the coming fiscal is Rs 79,530 crore, and it leaves the urea maximum retail price unchanged and does not move to a nutrient-based subsidy.
Keeping subsidised urea prices fixed supports domestic fertiliser demand and limits the price signal to Indian farmers. Large subsidy payouts also clear industry arrears, which helps keep urea supply steady.
After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.