
The Fertilisers Association of India expects the government's FY23 fertilizer subsidy bill to reach 2.3 to 2.5 lakh crore and could fall about 25% in FY24 as global prices moderate. The association said fixed urea costs are too low and fertilizer margins are very thin, which is discouraging investment.
Subsidy levels determine how much Indian urea and DAP demand is insulated from world prices, and thin margins may constrain future domestic output and import needs.
After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.