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FertiStream summarizes discussions at the September 2025 TFI World Fertilizer Conference in Chicago, where participants flagged US tariff policy uncertainty on fertilizer imports, EU CBAM concerns, and changes in China's export policy. Attendees expected a sizable US corn planting area next season.
Tariff uncertainty and China's export policy shifts keep importers cautious, which can cause sudden fertilizer price swings and affect nitrogen and phosphate costs for feed-grain producers.
fertistream.comMilton SatoOct 6, 2025After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
After 29 past neutral policy events, DAP moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.3%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
