
Urea price declines paused as Middle East and Egyptian spot values had fallen roughly USD 30-50/tonne since the start of the month. Traders are waiting on clarity about China's confusing export restriction policy.
Indonesian producer Kaltim committed about 85,000 tonnes of granular urea, largely for Australia.
Uncertainty over Chinese export quotas is holding urea prices near mid-2023 floor levels, and the outcome will determine whether the downtrend resumes. Feed buyers should watch nitrogen input costs for corn and forage production.
After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.