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European fertilizer markets are centered on the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which since 1 January 2026 requires imported fertilizers to be priced on emissions. Urea has eased 3 to 6 euros per tonne since early February, KAS/AN is stable, DAP is high but flat on subdued demand, and potash is nearly unchanged.
Higher CBAM costs keep European import prices elevated, but high Q4 inventories and weak demand are capping gains, which points to soft nitrogen and phosphate prices near term.
zmp.deFeb 12, 2026After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 29 past neutral policy events, DAP moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.3%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
