China's DAP market was relatively stable through February 2024 but thin, as government restrictions capped exports and customs clearance for DAP exports stayed suspended. Offers held at USD 560/MT FOB Qingdao amid the Lunar New Year slowdown and a lack of clarity on export quotas.
Suspended Chinese export clearance and uncertainty over quotas limit global DAP supply, which supports prices, but the stalled trade means no clear price direction yet.
After 29 past neutral policy events, DAP moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.3%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.