
IICA analysis warns that the 2026-27 El Niño could significantly affect Latin American and Caribbean food systems, with productivity losses likely in Central America and the Caribbean. Argentina, Brazil and Chile could see historically favorable conditions for some crops.
NOAA gives an 83% probability that the relative Oceanic Niño Index reaches +2.5 °C or more between October and December 2026.
Expected losses in Central America and the Caribbean could raise regional grain and feed import needs, while favorable conditions in Argentina and Brazil could add South American supply, which weighs on prices for soy and corn.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.