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RaboResearch expects international wheat prices to be supported next year by falling stocks and export difficulties for Russian and Ukrainian grain. It also expects diesel and other production input costs to stay high.
Rabobank projects global wheat consumption to exceed production by about 4 million tonnes in 2026/27 and by about 8.5 million tonnes in 2027/28, with world stocks falling from 281.6 million tonnes to about 269 million.
A tighter wheat balance and higher diesel and input costs raise feed grain prices and the cost of feed transport and production. Disruption to Black Sea exports, which affect about 30% of world wheat trade, keeps upside risk in wheat prices.
fr.boerenbusiness.nlJohn RamakerNov 12, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
