Brent rose above $95 after Trump said the US did not need an Iran deal and controlled Iranian funds and the strait. Brent futures settled 3.3% higher at $95.82 and WTI gained 2.6% to $88.74 on Thursday.
Iran said it would not hold direct talks until the US lifts its naval blockade and sanctions.
Stalled diplomacy keeps a risk premium in crude, supporting diesel and energy costs for feed production and transport.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.