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U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow after Abu Dhabi talks that produced a prisoner exchange but no move to reopen Black Sea trade. ICE canola reopened higher after Remembrance Day, with January at C$778.30 per tonne, and Algeria bought more than 700,000 tonnes of milling wheat at about US$313 a tonne cost and freight.
Stalled Black Sea talks keep Ukrainian and Russian grain flows constrained, supporting wheat prices. Algeria's large purchase, with Argentina expected to supply much of it, signals firm import demand for wheat, while higher canola reflects overseas vegetable oil strength.
pgi.klarenbach.caTrent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAgNov 12, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
