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FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for French wheat exports outside the EU, expecting France to replace part of the Black Sea supply disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The agency cut its estimate of French wheat inventory from 3.6 to 3.0 million tonnes, and it estimates 12-14 million tonnes of Ukrainian and Russian exports could be lost for the rest of 2021/22.
Losing up to 12-14 million tonnes of Black Sea wheat exports tightens global supply and pulls importers toward French origin, supporting wheat prices.
tridge.comRosngMar 14, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
