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Commonwealth Bank economist Dennis Voznesenski says Australian wheat crops are performing strongly, with yields in parts of South Australia and Victoria roughly double last year. Prolonged Black Sea export disruption could eventually push delayed buyers back into the market.
A large Australian crop could capture Asian demand that Black Sea disruption leaves open, capping upside in wheat prices. Strong Australian supply is bearish for international wheat values over the medium term.
spglobal.comPaola Caballeros, Edward LowSep 22, 2026After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
