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ABARES projects Australian wheat production will rise 11.8% in 2018/19 to 23.7 million tonnes after La Niña rains reached the northeastern coast. Last year's dry conditions had hurt yields.
A larger Australian wheat crop adds export supply and would ease upward pressure on global wheat prices. The effect on feed-grade wheat availability is bearish.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.