
WTI and Brent crude futures rose on Thursday, with December WTI up about 2.5% and January Brent up about 3.3%. Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and Hormuz shipping disruptions put some war premium back into prices, despite higher OPEC+ output and rising US inventories.
Renewed threats to Gulf crude flows lift oil prices, which feed into diesel and fertilizer costs and can support vegetable oil and biofuel-linked feedstock prices.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.