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NOAA's latest update maintains a forecast for a strong to very strong El Niño, with a possibility of record intensity. Projections include temperatures near 40 °C in the Center-North, above-average rain in the South, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, and drought risk in parts of the North and Northeast.
A possible transition to La Niña is flagged for spring 2027.
Heat and drought risk in central Brazil's main soybean and corn areas, combined with excess rain in the South, raises the risk of yield losses and supply uncertainty for soybean meal and corn. This supports firmer prices for these commodities.
canalrural.com.brGabriel AlmeidaNov 12, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
