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Smallholder farmers in tropical and subtropical countries are already suffering from the record 2026-2027 El Niño, with extreme heat, drought and deluge reported. The UN estimates the event could push an additional 49 million people into acute hunger, with southern Africa and Central America likely hardest hit.
Expected deep cuts to rice, corn, cocoa, coffee and palm oil supply from El Niño could tighten global feed-relevant grain and oilseed markets and lift prices. The effect is broad but not yet quantified in new production data.
news.mongabay.comGlenn SchererNov 12, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
