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Josh Linville of StoneX says disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain the main driver of global fertilizer prices. Some fertilizer cargoes are getting through via alternative channels, but volumes are still far below normal.
He says phosphate is the input that has risen most and is furthest out of line with grain values, and farmers are holding back purchases for 2027.
Phosphate and nitrogen prices stay high while grain values lag, so farmer buying slows and input demand weakens. Tight margins and reduced purchasing point to continued price pressure on phosphate products.
brownfieldagnews.comBrent BarnettNov 12, 2026After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
