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Saudi output rebounded in October, pushing total OPEC production up 1.97 million bpd to near prewar levels for the first time. Aramco plans to maximize production in the fourth quarter as it works to replenish inventories drained during the Iran war.
Restored Gulf supply and expected inventory rebuilding cap crude prices, which feeds into diesel, fertilizer and freight costs for feed producers.
semafor.comMatthew MartinNov 12, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
