Wheat Rises as Russia-Ukraine Talks Yield No Black Sea Deal

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Feb 28, 2022Wheat Continues Surge on Black Sea Supply Concerns as Ukraine-Russia Crisis Continues+12.1%
• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+3.9%
• Jul 27, 2026Black Sea grain trapped as Russia, Ukraine attacks continue | World Grain-2.0%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal: What's next now that Russia has pulled out?+2.4%
• Mar 1, 2023Talks on extending Black Sea grain deal start in a week - Ukraine-1.6%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jul 16, 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+6.0%
• Jul 27, 2026Black Sea grain trapped as Russia, Ukraine attacks continue | World Grain-2.9%
• Jul 19, 2023Wheat Futures Rise 9% as Russia Threatens Ships Headed to Ukraine - Bloomberg+10.3%
• Aug 31, 2026Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices-5.0%
• Apr 25, 2023Wheat: All Eyes Are On Extension Of The Black Sea Grain Deal - TalkMarkets-5.4%