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ING analyst Francesco Pesole says the widening two-year swap rate differential favours the dollar, leaving EUR/USD at risk of testing 1.100. ING expects support at that level and says a break below it would likely require markets to price a 50bp Fed hike in December.
A weaker euro against the dollar raises the cost of US commodities for euro-based feed buyers and can soften dollar-quoted grain prices.
octabroker.comNov 12, 2026After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
