
Wheat futures in Chicago and Paris rose after the November WASDE report, which raised global wheat stocks, and gains spread to Ukrainian and German cash markets. Chicago December HRW closed near $5.93/bu on November 10, and Euronext December milling wheat closed at €236.25/t on November 11, up 2.49% on the session.
Higher USDA ending stocks for 2026/27 cap wheat upside, but firm export demand and Black Sea risks support prices. Feed and milling buyers should expect modest near-term price firmness, with direction driven by USDA revisions and export activity through November.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.