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US truck stop diesel averaged $6.23 per gallon on November 9, up 65% from a year earlier, even as Brent fell 21% from its October 30 high. Refined product shortages and a diesel crack spread about three times its early-2026 level are keeping pump prices high, and EIA raised its 2027 retail diesel forecast to $5.03 per gallon.
Diesel prices stay high because refined supply is tight rather than because of crude, which keeps freight and transport costs elevated for feed delivery even as crude falls.
freightwaves.comJulie Van de KampNov 12, 2026After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
