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USDA's November report lowered its 2026/27 global oilseed production forecast by 0.3 million tonnes to 721.9 million tonnes. The cut reflects weaker soybean prospects in Ukraine and other countries and lower sunflower output in Russia and Argentina, partly offset by higher US soybean and record rapeseed output.
A smaller global oilseed supply, combined with higher US soybean output and lower US ending stocks, tightens the balance for meal and oil. Crushing and trade are still projected to rise, so the price impact is modest and supportive for soybean complex prices.
agriinsite.comUkr Agro ConsultNov 12, 2026After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
