Oat Market Analysis – Flat Physical Prices, Firmer Futures, Black Sea Risk

After 96 past neutral events of any kind, Oats moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.7% to +3.4%), and -1.2% over 20.

• Mar 12, 2026Oats can improve soil and water quality. All that’s missing is a market for them. - FoodPrint+2.3%
• Jun 15, 2026Focus: Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third | Reuters+2.3%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 31, 2026Wheat Futures Rally on Black Sea Escalation as Market Tests Key Resistance-1.7%
• Oct 30, 2022Grain market braces for price flurry as Black Sea corridor in doubt-5.6%
• Oct 31, 2022Wheat futures jump as Russia pulls out of Black Sea agreement | CBC News-5.6%
• Oct 31, 2022Wheat futures jump, hitting record high in Sydney, after Russia exits Black Sea deal - Grain Price News-5.6%
• Aug 31, 2026Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices+2.2%