USDA raised US soybean production and yield to records, but by less than expected, and cut ending stocks to 300 million bushels on strong exports. CBOT soybeans rose 39.75 cents to 1,226.75 cents/bu, the largest one-day gain in four months.
Stronger export demand outweighed the production increase, tightening the balance sheet and lifting soybean prices. Weak livestock margins are limiting meal demand, which caps the rebound in soybean meal.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.