
Crude futures traded lower on Thursday morning after a Wall Street Journal report that US Vice President JD Vance was considering direct talks with an Iranian representative to end the West Asia war. Brent was at $91.29, down 1.58%, and December WTI at $85.30, down 1.42%.
Expectations of easing Middle East tensions reduce the geopolitical risk premium in crude, which lowers energy and transport costs for feed supply chains.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.