
Mato Grosso do Sul soybean planting reached 83.1% of expected area, about 4.05 million hectares, slightly behind last year. Forecasts point to a 5.5% larger planted area but an 8.4% lower estimated output of 15.3 million tonnes due to dry conditions in the north, hail and pests.
A projected 8.4% drop in Mato Grosso do Sul soybean output tightens regional supply and supports soybean meal prices for feed buyers, though the state is a small share of national production.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.