Oil rises on mixed signals over Iran war outlook

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 2, 2026Oil rises slightly as market weighs mixed supply signals | Reuters-1.5%
• Mar 28, 2024Oil rises more than $1 a barrel on tighter supply outlook+6.4%
• Sep 27, 2018Oil rises as investors fret over Iranian supply gaps+6.1%
• Mar 30, 2023Oil rises over 1% on Iraqi supply risks, U.S. crude draw | Reuters+10.6%
• Dec 23, 2022Oil rises $3/bbl after Russia signals output cut due to price cap+3.3%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 2, 2026Oil rises slightly as market weighs mixed supply signals | Reuters+7.5%
• Mar 28, 2024Oil rises more than $1 a barrel on tighter supply outlook+5.8%
• Sep 27, 2018Oil rises as investors fret over Iranian supply gaps+5.2%
• Mar 30, 2023Oil rises over 1% on Iraqi supply risks, U.S. crude draw | Reuters+9.7%
• Dec 23, 2022Oil rises $3/bbl after Russia signals output cut due to price cap+5.1%