Regular rain is improving soil moisture for winter crops in France, Germany and the UK after dry conditions; cooler temperatures are also limiting pest risks. The Black Sea region is receiving rain and snow, while dry US weather is widening harvest windows for corn and soybeans and allowing winter wheat sowing to progress.
Rain forecasts for Argentina remain uncertain.
Improved moisture in European and Black Sea winter-crop areas supports yield potential and may weigh on wheat prices if conditions persist. Drier US weather is helping harvest progress, reducing the risk of delays for corn and soybeans.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.