
EU wheat output is forecast to rise 3.8% to 141 million tonnes, according to Strategie Grains, after an 11% slump the previous year. France had a strong harvest with good quality, while parts of Spain, Germany and Romania suffered frost, heat, drought or rain.
A larger EU crop with good French quality increases export competition and supports softer wheat prices, though regional quality problems may limit feed-grade supply in parts of northern Europe.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.