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Traders said the EU is heading for a larger wheat crop despite a late-June heatwave that cost a couple of million tonnes. France's soft wheat forecast was raised toward 38 million tonnes or higher, and German production is seen up 17.7% to 23.85 million tonnes.
A bigger EU crop and strong export supplies from leading producers add competition in world wheat markets, which is bearish for prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.