
Severe cold across Europe last week was unlikely to cause significant damage to wheat, according to analysts and traders, because crops were insulated by snow and had built winter hardiness. Rapeseed sown during late-summer drought and some early-drilled spring barley were judged more at risk.
French winter soft wheat area was raised to 4.86 million hectares, up 15% year on year.
Limited frost losses support expectations of a larger EU harvest, which keeps wheat supply ample and caps prices, while rapeseed risk could slightly firm canola meal and oilseed prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.