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Paris wheat prices rose as there was no sign of a Black Sea deal. Demand was expected to remain with the EU.
Uncertainty around a Black Sea agreement may keep export supplies constrained and sustain demand for EU wheat, supporting prices.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.