USDA’s November Crop Production and WASDE reports raised its forecasts for global wheat production and ending stocks, with higher output projected in Australia, Argentina and Turkey. The agency lowered projected U.S. hard red winter wheat exports, while Black Sea export projections also fell and forecasts for Argentina and Australia’s exports increased.
Larger global wheat supplies and reduced U.S. HRW export expectations weigh on wheat prices, though lower Black Sea export projections provide some offset. Robust grain stocks overall point to limited near-term price movement.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.