
ANZ reports Australia's 2024/25 winter crop reached 59.8 million tonnes, up 26% and the third largest on record. New South Wales and Western Australia led the recovery while Victoria and South Australia fell sharply due to frosts and dry spells.
A large national harvest adds export supply of wheat and barley, which is bearish for world prices, though the regional shortfalls in Victoria and South Australia limit the downside.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.