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The report says 2026 is virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and is likely to be the second-warmest year on record. October set a global temperature record, El Niño strengthened, and parts of central and eastern Europe experienced persistently low river flows while other areas faced heavy rain and flooding.
More frequent or intense weather extremes can raise the risk of crop losses and disrupt agricultural supply, potentially supporting prices in affected markets. The article provides broad climate context rather than a specific crop-supply estimate.
jircas.go.jpJapan International Research CenterNov 10, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
