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A Scientific Reports study by Yu, Miao and Khanna examines US corn and soybean yields from 1951 to 2017. It finds that heat and drought tolerance raised yields but that maladaptation to normal conditions cut them, and projects climate change could reduce corn and soybean yields by 39-68% and 86-92% by 2050 before technology gains.
The research is long-run and does not describe current market conditions.
The findings point to long-run yield pressure from climate change, which matters for future supply, but it has little direct effect on near-term corn and soybean prices.
nature.comYu, Chengzheng, Miao, Ruiqing, Khanna, MadhuJul 1, 2021After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
