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The WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update projects tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures could reach 3.8°C above average from November 2026 to January 2027. WMO says the event may be unprecedented in strength and that impacts will persist after the peak late in 2026.
A record-strength El Niño raises the odds of drought in major grain, oilseed and palm oil producers, supporting prices for feed inputs across the complex.
wmo.intWorld Meteorological Organization WMOOct 26, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
