
Weather uncertainty and advance sales are making Brazilian soybean producers more cautious about marketing the 2026/27 crop. By November, about 35% of expected production had been sold, versus 26% a year earlier, while sales in Mato Grosso reached 49%; below-average rainfall is forecast in the Center-West through November 16.
Dry-weather risk could lower yields and leave producers unable to fulfill forward sales, encouraging them to slow additional selling and potentially reducing near-term export availability. The same production uncertainty supports soybean prices if crop losses materialize.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.