University of Missouri Extension warned that predicted low-90s temperatures the week of May 8, combined with intense or recurrent rain, could cause ponding and flooding damage to corn and soybean seedlings. Soybeans tolerate flooding better than corn, and damage would include stand reduction and lower yields.
Replanting or yield losses from waterlogged fields would reduce corn supply and support feed grain prices. The effect is localized to Missouri-area fields unless wetness spreads across the Corn Belt.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.