
MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny said stronger US CPI and hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller lifted two-year Treasury yields and revived partial market pricing for a possible 50-basis-point December rate hike. He remained doubtful that a 50-basis-point increase is warranted, but said further strong data or a rebound in crude oil could increase the odds and put EUR/USD below 1.1000 in play.
A more hawkish Fed outlook could strengthen the dollar, raising the local-currency cost of feed imports for buyers in countries whose currencies weaken against it. No direct shift in feed commodity supply or demand is reported.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.