
The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29, 2025. Chair Powell then said a December cut is not a foregone conclusion, which pulled back market pricing for another reduction and lifted the dollar index to about 99.3.
A firmer dollar and higher US yields reduce the appeal of dollar-priced commodities and can pressure export demand for US grains and meals. Traders are pricing a less accommodative Fed path.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.