
The euro traded choppily against the dollar and pound after the ECB left rates unchanged but tasked staff with designing a tiered reserve remuneration system and options for a new QE programme. Analysts read this as groundwork for a deposit rate cut and bond buying from September.
Preparation for deeper cuts and QE points to a weaker euro over coming months. That affects the relative cost of US grains and oilseeds for European feed buyers.
After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.