
Gold and silver fell sharply after a strong September flash PMI showed US business activity at its fastest pace in over five years. Fed funds futures now imply about three and a half more 25bp hikes by mid-2027, and the DXY broke to multi-month highs.
Higher expected US rates and a stronger dollar lift the cost of commodities priced in dollars for importing countries. This tends to weigh on commodity prices.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.