
Brent and WTI edged higher as continued attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz tempered hopes for de-escalation in the Iran war. Iran’s army said a tanker had struck a naval mine and caught fire in the strait, a route that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil.
Disruption or risk to traffic through a major oil-export route could constrain crude flows and raise shipping and insurance costs, supporting oil prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.