
Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 0.52% on Tuesday while the dollar rose about 1.5% to R$5.586 after U.S. October consumer inflation came in above expectations. The report strengthened bets on a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in December, while Brazil’s Copom minutes suggested the Selic rate could remain at 13.75% for longer; Petrobras’s quarterly results and Banco do Brasil’s scheduled earnings were also in focus.
Above-forecast U.S. inflation and expectations of higher U.S. rates supported the dollar, increasing the BRL cost of imported feed and agricultural inputs. The currency and interest-rate moves may affect Brazilian commodity pricing and financing costs.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.