
Expectations of a record Brazilian soybean crop in 2026/27, supported by favorable weather, are pressuring prices and discouraging buying. Importers are postponing 2027 contracts, while ample inventories and weaker demand for soybean meal and oil are also weighing on Brazil’s market.
A potentially larger Brazilian crop and delayed purchases increase expected export availability, putting downward pressure on soybean prices. Weaker domestic demand and ample meal inventories also weigh on soybean meal and oil prices.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 49 past bearish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.