
Oil prices rose from two-month lows as attacks on ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks in focus despite hopes for easing Iran-war tensions. A report counted 37 ship attacks in October and 10 more so far in November.
Continued attacks could disrupt oil flows through a major export route, adding a risk premium to crude prices even if conflict de-escalation eventually restores supply.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.