
Vietnam exported 6.8 million tonnes of rice in the first 10 months of 2026, down 4.6% year on year, while export revenue fell 9.7% and the average export price declined 5.4% to $484 per tonne. Rice output harvested by the end of October was nearly 37 million tonnes, around 98% of the year-earlier level, while Autumn-Winter planted area fell 9.1%.
Lower export volumes and prices are pressuring sales and revenue, weighing on rice prices. Reduced planting area could tighten supplies later in the year and provide some support.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.