
Indian non-basmati rice export volume rose 6.5% to just over 15 million tonnes in FY2025-26, but export value fell over 10% to $5.86 billion. Lower shipments to West and Central Africa were blamed on dollar shortages, competition from Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan, and African buyers holding large inventories.
Weaker African demand and heavy importer stocks add pressure on Asian rice prices, though rising El Niño risk could tighten supply later in the year.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.